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Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Suwon City FC beat Gangwon FC 1-0 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.34 xG and Gangwon FC 1.36 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.22 / defence 1.26 against Gangwon FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.75, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 37% | Draw 26% | Gangwon FC 38%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 57%, Gangwon FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Gangwon FC's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.25 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights