🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Gangwon FC defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gangwon FC beat Suwon City FC 1-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.15 xG and Gangwon FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gangwon FC outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Gangwon FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 35% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 34%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Gangwon FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 56%, Gangwon FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Gangwon FC's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights