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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Suwon City FC and FC Seoul share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 32, as Suwon City FC and FC Seoul drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 2.01 xG and FC Seoul 1.64 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Suwon City FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.23 against FC Seoul attack 1.07 / defence 1.17, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 46% | Draw 22% | FC Seoul 32%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 56%, FC Seoul 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

FC Seoul's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.30 PPG, FC Seoul 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights