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Stalemate at Suwon City FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Suwon City FC and FC Seoul finished level at 0-0 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.40 xG and FC Seoul 1.06 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Suwon City FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. FC Seoul landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.13 against FC Seoul attack 0.88 / defence 1.07, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 27% | FC Seoul 28%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 57%, FC Seoul 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.16 PPG, FC Seoul 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. FC Seoul (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights