Suwon City FC 2-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Anyang make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 July 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Anyang have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Anyang have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.10 for FC Anyang. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, FC Anyang in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Suwon City FC 0W, FC Anyang 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 1–2 with FC Anyang winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC Anyang — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon City FC 65% and FC Anyang 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 52% | FC Anyang 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.54 xG and FC Anyang 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.052 / defence 1.035 | FC Anyang attack 0.791 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.264. Data: 55 Suwon City FC games / 23 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 48% | Draw 27% | FC Anyang 25%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | FC Anyang 4.00. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 80% | FC Anyang 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 48% | Draw 27% | FC Anyang 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Suwon City FC 1.54 / FC Anyang 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.052 / def 1.035 | FC Anyang attack 0.791 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
FC Anyang xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang?
Suwon City FC 2 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 48% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Suwon City FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Anyang?
Record (2 meetings): Suwon City FC 0W | Draws 0 | FC Anyang 2W.
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Anyang in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. FC Anyang (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 1.05x the league average against FC Anyang's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (0.79x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 55/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.69
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.03
FC Anyang xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
5%
18.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.03 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 5W 7D 11L from 23 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Anyang, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 12L across 23 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.17 for FC Anyang. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 4W 3D 4L from 11 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Suwon City FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FC Anyang's away record stands at 4W 0D 7L across 11 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
FC Anyang
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 8W 3D 12L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or FC Anyang away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.36 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Suwon City FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
0
Draws
2
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Anyang?
From 4 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, FC Anyang have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when FC Anyang 0-1 Suwon City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 73%, FC Anyang 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Suwon City FC) and 54% (FC Anyang). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 9% and 9% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Anyang in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play FC Anyang?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Suwon City FC's games and 54% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Suwon City FC's matches and 54% of FC Anyang's.
Do Suwon City FC and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon City FC edge out FC Anyang 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat FC Anyang 2-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.54 xG and FC Anyang 1.03 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against FC Anyang attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 48% | Draw 27% | FC Anyang 25%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 52%, FC Anyang 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC Anyang's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 0.96 PPG, FC Anyang 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.