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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Anyang defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Anyang beat Suwon City FC 1-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.58 xG and FC Anyang 0.99 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Anyang outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.14 / defence 0.90 against FC Anyang attack 0.91 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 51% | Draw 26% | FC Anyang 23%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a FC Anyang win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights