🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Suwon City FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Daejeon Citizen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Suwon City FC beat Daejeon Citizen 3-0 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.25 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.73 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daejeon Citizen landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.08 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.50 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 28% | Draw 24% | Daejeon Citizen 49%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 57%, Daejeon Citizen 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.16 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights