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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Suwon City FC edge out Daegu FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Suwon City FC beat Daegu FC 2-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.76 xG and Daegu FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.15 against Daegu FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.33, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 24%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 56%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Daegu FC's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG, Daegu FC 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights