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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Bucheon FC 1995 defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bucheon FC 1995 beat Suwon City FC 2-3 at Suwon Sports Complex, Final, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.85 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.17 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Bucheon FC 1995 outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.13 against Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 66/0 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 24% | Bucheon FC 1995 23%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Bucheon FC 1995 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 0%, Bucheon FC 1995 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Bucheon FC 1995 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Suwon City FC scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bucheon FC 1995 scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights