Suwon Bluewings 0-0 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Incheon United make the trip to Suwon World Cup Stadium to face Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 July 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Suwon Bluewings (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon Bluewings have posted 4W 3D 3L at Suwon World Cup Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Incheon United's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Suwon Bluewings against 1.10 for Incheon United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Suwon Bluewings lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 0–1 with Incheon United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Suwon Bluewings — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Incheon United — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 43% versus Incheon United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 45% | Incheon United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.12 xG and Incheon United 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.852 / defence 0.855 | Incheon United attack 1.030 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.116. Data: 51 Suwon Bluewings games / 51 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 38% | Draw 31% | Incheon United 31%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Incheon United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon Bluewings are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Suwon Bluewings 30% | Incheon United 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Jul 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 38% | Draw 31% | Incheon United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.12 / Incheon United 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.852 / def 0.855 | Incheon United attack 1.030 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Incheon United xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 3 July 2022 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United?
Suwon Bluewings 0 - 0 Incheon United.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 38% chance of winning, Incheon United a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Incheon United?
Record (4 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 1W | Draws 1 | Incheon United 2W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Incheon United in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Incheon United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (0.85) and Incheon United's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (1.03x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.25
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.10
0.98
Incheon United xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.98 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suwon Bluewings's recent record stands at 16W 16D 24L from 56 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Incheon United, meanwhile, have gone 19W 18D 19L across 56 games — 1.34 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Suwon Bluewings against 1.34 for Incheon United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Suwon Bluewings have managed 8W 8D 11L from 27 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Incheon United's away record stands at 8W 8D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.09 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 56 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Incheon United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 16W 16D 24L in their last 56 games (1.14 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 19W 18D 19L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Incheon United away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.19 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Incheon United in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Incheon United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
4
Draws
3
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Incheon United?
From 9 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Incheon United have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2023, when Incheon United 2-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 52%, Incheon United 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Suwon Bluewings) and 52% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 30% of games; Incheon United in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Incheon United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 59% of Incheon United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 52% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Incheon United tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Suwon Bluewings's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 19, as Suwon Bluewings and Incheon United drew 0-0 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.12 xG and Incheon United 0.98 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Incheon United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.85 / defence 0.85 against Incheon United attack 1.03 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 38% | Draw 31% | Incheon United 31%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 45%, Incheon United 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Incheon United's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.14 PPG, Incheon United 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.