Suwon Bluewings 1-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 4 as Suwon Bluewings welcome Gangwon FC to Suwon World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 March 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.46 xG and Gangwon FC 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.935 / defence 0.855 | Gangwon FC attack 0.762 / defence 1.630. League average goals — home 0.955 / away 0.941. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.630 — this is suppressing Suwon Bluewings's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Suwon Bluewings games / 3 Gangwon FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 57% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Gangwon FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Suwon Bluewings (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon Bluewings at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Mar 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 57% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 36% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.46 / Gangwon FC 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.935 / def 0.855 | Gangwon FC attack 0.762 / def 1.630 | league avg home 0.955 / away 0.941 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Gangwon FC xG
36%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 14 March 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 57% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (0.94) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.63), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 2-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
57%
1.75
28%
3.62
15%
6.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.07
0.61
Gangwon FC xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
6.59
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
4%
28.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.61 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Gangwon FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
5
Draws
2
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Suwon Bluewings and Gangwon FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.46 xG and Gangwon FC 0.61 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.94 / defence 0.85 against Gangwon FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.63, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 57% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 15%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.