Suwon Bluewings 1-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC meet at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 12 October 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Suwon Bluewings have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon Bluewings at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season.
Daegu FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Daegu FC have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Suwon Bluewings, 1.40 for Daegu FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Suwon Bluewings, 2 for Daegu FC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Suwon Bluewings half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 47% versus Daegu FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 47% | Daegu FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.80 xG and Daegu FC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.016 / defence 1.167 | Daegu FC attack 0.917 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.241. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Suwon Bluewings's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Suwon Bluewings games / 66 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 49% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Daegu FC 3.57. Suwon Bluewings hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon Bluewings are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon Bluewings 50% | Daegu FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 49% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.80 / Daegu FC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 1.016 / def 1.167 | Daegu FC attack 0.917 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Daegu FC xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 12 October 2022 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 2 Daegu FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 49% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC?
Record (6 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 2W | Draws 2 | Daegu FC 2W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Suwon Bluewings's attack at 1.02x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.92x) against Suwon Bluewings's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
49%
2.06
23%
4.34
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
3.13
1.33
Daegu FC xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
17%
6.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
5%
21.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.33 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Suwon Bluewings's recent record stands at 21W 21D 31L from 73 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 24W 24D 25L across 73 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Suwon Bluewings against 1.32 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Suwon Bluewings have managed 9W 13D 14L from 36 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 8W 13D 15L across 36 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.18 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 73 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 21W 21D 31L in their last 73 games (1.15 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 24W 24D 25L in their last 73 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Daegu FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.11 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 3-0 on 8 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon Bluewings have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
3
Draws
5
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Daegu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 0-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 53%, Daegu FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Suwon Bluewings) and 50% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 33% of games; Daegu FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Suwon Bluewings's games and 64% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 50% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Suwon Bluewings 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Suwon Bluewings 1-2 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 3, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.80 xG and Daegu FC 1.33 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 1.02 / defence 1.17 against Daegu FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.27, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 49% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 28%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Daegu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 47%, Daegu FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 1.15 PPG, Daegu FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.