Seoul E-Land FC 1-2 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Seoul E-Land FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Mokdong Stadium in K League 1, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 07:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seoul E-Land FC 1.38 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seoul E-Land FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.184 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 0 Seoul E-Land FC games / 66 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seoul E-Land FC 32% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%. Fair-value odds: Seoul E-Land FC 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.22. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Mokdong Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seoul E-Land FC 32% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Seoul E-Land FC 1.38 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Seoul E-Land FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.184 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Seoul E-Land FC xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Jeonbuk Motors xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Mokdong Stadium.
What was the final score in Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Seoul E-Land FC 1 - 2 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Mokdong Stadium.
What competition is Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Relegation Round fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Seoul E-Land FC a 32% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Seoul E-Land FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seoul E-Land FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Seoul E-Land FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Jeonbuk Motors away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | CS 3.
What do the betting odds say about Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Seoul E-Land FC's attack rating (0.85) and Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Seoul E-Land FC's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
32%
3.15
24%
4.21
45%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Seoul E-Land FC xG
Total xG
3.06
1.68
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.15
32%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.25
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
6%
16.89
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Seoul E-Land FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Seoul E-Land FC and 1.68 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Seoul E-Land FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seoul E-Land FC
Pre-Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Seoul E-Land FC and Jeonbuk Motors runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Seoul E-Land FC
0
Draws
2
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seoul E-Land FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 2 meetings on record, Seoul E-Land FC have won 0, Jeonbuk Motors have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Seoul E-Land FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-1 Seoul E-Land FC.
Who has won more matches between Seoul E-Land FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seoul E-Land FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Seoul E-Land FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Seoul E-Land FC 1-2 at Mokdong Stadium, Relegation Round, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seoul E-Land FC 1.38 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.68 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seoul E-Land FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.18 / defence 1.12, drawn from 0/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seoul E-Land FC 32% | Draw 24% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.