Seongnam FC 2-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Seongnam FC host Suwon City FC at Tancheon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Seongnam FC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Seongnam FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tancheon Sports Complex, Seongnam FC have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon City FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Suwon City FC — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Seongnam FC, 2 for Suwon City FC and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Seongnam FC in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Suwon City FC in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 48% versus Suwon City FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 46% | Suwon City FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.00 xG and Suwon City FC 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.833 / defence 1.463 | Suwon City FC attack 0.991 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.260. Data: 60 Seongnam FC games / 60 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 20% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 56%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Suwon City FC 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Suwon City FC (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Seongnam FC 60% | Suwon City FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 20% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Seongnam FC 1.00 / Suwon City FC 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.833 / def 1.463 | Suwon City FC attack 0.991 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Suwon City FC xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Seongnam FC 2 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 20% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (5 meetings): Seongnam FC 2W | Draws 1 | Suwon City FC 2W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Suwon City FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Seongnam FC's attack at 0.83x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
20%
5.02
24%
4.17
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.83
Suwon City FC xG
5.02
20%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
16%
6.22
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
3%
31.22
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.83 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Seongnam FC's recent record stands at 15W 17D 33L from 65 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 26L across 65 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Seongnam FC on 0.95 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Seongnam FC have managed 9W 9D 14L from 32 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 9W 10D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 60%.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 15W 17D 33L in their last 65 games (0.95 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 24W 15D 26L in their last 65 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Suwon City FC's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.12 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Seongnam FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2022, when Suwon City FC 2-1 Seongnam FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 47%, Suwon City FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Seongnam FC) and 47% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Seongnam FC have failed to score in 34% of games; Suwon City FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 50% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 47% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Seongnam FC defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC beat Suwon City FC 2-1 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.00 xG and Suwon City FC 1.83 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Seongnam FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon City FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.46 against Suwon City FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.83, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 20% | Draw 24% | Suwon City FC 56%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Seongnam FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 46%, Suwon City FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Seongnam FC 0.95 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Seongnam FC win broke the near-deadlock. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.