Seongnam FC 1-0 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Seongnam FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 1 sees Pohang Steelers travel to Tancheon Sports Complex to take on Seongnam FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Seongnam FC have posted 3W 3D 4L at Tancheon Sports Complex — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pohang Steelers — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pohang Steelers's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Seongnam FC) versus 0.80 (Pohang Steelers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Seongnam FC, 1 for Pohang Steelers and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Seongnam FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Seongnam FC trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Pohang Steelers trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 46% versus Pohang Steelers 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 42% | Pohang Steelers 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.09 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.945 / defence 0.964 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.850 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 0.939 / away 1.264. Pohang Steelers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Seongnam FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Seongnam FC games / 33 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 37% | Draw 30% | Pohang Steelers 34%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Pohang Steelers 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Seongnam FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Seongnam FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Seongnam FC 50% | Pohang Steelers 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 37% | Draw 30% | Pohang Steelers 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Seongnam FC 1.09 / Pohang Steelers 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.945 / def 0.964 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.850 / def 1.231 | league avg home 0.939 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Seongnam FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Pohang Steelers xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Seongnam FC 1 - 0 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 37% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Seongnam FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers?
Record (3 meetings): Seongnam FC 2W | Draws 0 | Pohang Steelers 1W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Seongnam FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Pohang Steelers's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Seongnam FC Win
37%
2.73
30%
3.37
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.13
1.03
Pohang Steelers xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.03 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Seongnam FC have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 9W 10D 14L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Pohang Steelers's form line: 11W 9D 13L from 33 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Seongnam FC on 1.12 PPG, Pohang Steelers on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Seongnam FC have posted 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L).
On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 6W 4D 6L from 16 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.06 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 33 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 9W 10D 14L in their last 33 games (1.12 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 11W 9D 13L in their last 33 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Seongnam FC's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.38 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Seongnam FC or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seongnam FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jul 2022, when Pohang Steelers won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seongnam FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 3, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 44%, Pohang Steelers 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Seongnam FC) and 38% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Seongnam FC have failed to score in 31% of games; Pohang Steelers in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Pohang Steelers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 56% of Pohang Steelers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 38% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Seongnam FC edge out Pohang Steelers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC beat Pohang Steelers 1-0 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Relegation Round - 1, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.09 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.03 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pohang Steelers landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.96 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.85 / defence 1.23, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 37% | Draw 30% | Pohang Steelers 34%, with Seongnam FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 42%, Pohang Steelers 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Seongnam FC 1.12 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Seongnam FC win broke the near-deadlock. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.