Seongnam FC 2-0 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Seongnam FC take on Gwangju FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tancheon Sports Complex plays host to Seongnam FC versus Gwangju FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 10 April 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 0.98 xG and Gwangju FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.821 / defence 0.953 | Gwangju FC attack 1.017 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 0.960 / away 1.034. Gwangju FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Seongnam FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Seongnam FC games / 8 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 31% | Draw 38% | Gwangju FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 3.23 | Draw 2.63 | Gwangju FC 3.12. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 31% | Draw 38% | Gwangju FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 43% | xG Seongnam FC 0.98 / Gwangju FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.821 / def 0.953 | Gwangju FC attack 1.017 / def 1.245 | league avg home 0.960 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Gwangju FC xG
43%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 10 April 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Gwangju FC?
Seongnam FC 2 - 0 Gwangju FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 31% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 32% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Seongnam FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Gwangju FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Seongnam FC and Gwangju FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Seongnam FC's attack rating (0.82) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (1.02x) against Seongnam FC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
38%
2.65
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
1.98
1.00
Gwangju FC xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
12%
8.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.8 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.00 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seongnam FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
1
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Gwangju FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 2, Gwangju FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2021, when Seongnam FC 1-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Gwangju FC?
Seongnam FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Seongnam FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gwangju FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC beat Gwangju FC 2-0 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 0.98 xG and Gwangju FC 1.00 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Seongnam FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gwangju FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Gwangju FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.25, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 31% | Draw 38% | Gwangju FC 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Seongnam FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.