Seongnam FC 0-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Seongnam FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Seongnam FC host Gangwon FC at Tancheon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 July 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Seongnam FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tancheon Sports Complex, Seongnam FC have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gangwon FC have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Seongnam FC at 0.70 PPG versus Gangwon FC's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Seongnam FC, 3 for Gangwon FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with Gangwon FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Seongnam FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 43% versus Gangwon FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 41% | Gangwon FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.50 xG and Gangwon FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.799 / defence 1.295 | Gangwon FC attack 0.904 / defence 1.441. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.119. Seongnam FC's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.50 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gangwon FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.441 — this is suppressing Seongnam FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Seongnam FC games / 51 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 42% | Draw 25% | Gangwon FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Gangwon FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Seongnam FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Seongnam FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Seongnam FC 40% | Gangwon FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Jul 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 42% | Draw 25% | Gangwon FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Seongnam FC 1.50 / Gangwon FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.799 / def 1.295 | Gangwon FC attack 0.904 / def 1.441 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Seongnam FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Gangwon FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 July 2022 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Seongnam FC 0 - 2 Gangwon FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 42% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Seongnam FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (5 meetings): Seongnam FC 1W | Draws 1 | Gangwon FC 3W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Gangwon FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Seongnam FC's attack rating (0.80) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Seongnam FC Win
42%
2.40
25%
3.97
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.31
Gangwon FC xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
7%
13.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.31 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Seongnam FC's recent record stands at 13W 17D 26L from 56 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gangwon FC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 19D 22L across 56 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Seongnam FC on 1.00 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Seongnam FC have managed 8W 8D 11L from 27 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gangwon FC's away record stands at 3W 9D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gangwon FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Seongnam FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.12 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 56 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 13W 17D 26L in their last 56 games (1.00 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 15W 19D 22L in their last 56 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Seongnam FC's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.19 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Sep 2022, when Gangwon FC won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seongnam FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
5
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 1, Gangwon FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 0-4 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 44%, Gangwon FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Seongnam FC) and 48% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Seongnam FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Gangwon FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 56% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 48% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gangwon FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Seongnam FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Seongnam FC 0-2 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.50 xG and Gangwon FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Seongnam FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.29 against Gangwon FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.44, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 42% | Draw 25% | Gangwon FC 33%, with Seongnam FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Gangwon FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 41%, Gangwon FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Seongnam FC 1.00 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.