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Dominant Gimcheon Sangmu FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ulsan Hyundai FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.80 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.90 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54% | Draw 24% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 22%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.67 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights