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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Gimcheon Sangmu FC edge out Suwon City FC 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Suwon City FC 3-2 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.07 xG and Suwon City FC 1.37 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.87 against Suwon City FC attack 1.28 / defence 1.18, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54% | Draw 21% | Suwon City FC 25%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45%, Suwon City FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights