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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.18 xG and Suwon City FC 0.60 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.80 against Suwon City FC attack 0.65 / defence 1.16, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Draw 31% | Suwon City FC 19%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Suwon City FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights