Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-3 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC meet at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 9 July 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gimcheon Stadium, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.90 for Suwon City FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 4–1 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% versus Suwon City FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Suwon City FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.54 xG and Suwon City FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.991 / defence 0.757 | Suwon City FC attack 0.940 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.162. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 21 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 54 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon City FC 5.00. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Suwon City FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Jul 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.54 / Suwon City FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.991 / def 0.757 | Suwon City FC attack 0.940 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Suwon City FC xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 9 July 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 3 Suwon City FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 54% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (4 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W | Draws 1 | Suwon City FC 2W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.94x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 21/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.90
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.37
0.83
Suwon City FC xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
4%
23.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.83 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 11W 7D 3L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon City FC's form line: 10W 4D 7L from 21 games, 1.62 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.62 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2.30 PPG from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.19 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 11W 7D 3L in their last 21 games (1.90 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 10W 4D 7L in their last 21 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 2.30 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 1-4 on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
4
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 Suwon City FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40%, Suwon City FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 50% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 50% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 50% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-3 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.54 xG and Suwon City FC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.76 against Suwon City FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 21/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 20%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Suwon City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38%, Suwon City FC 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.90 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.