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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Championship Group - 35, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.56 xG and Pohang Steelers 0.96 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.85 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.92 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Draw 27% | Pohang Steelers 22%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Pohang Steelers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%, Pohang Steelers 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.68 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights