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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Pohang Steelers 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Pohang Steelers 1-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.05 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.21 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pohang Steelers landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.82 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.22 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 31% | Draw 29% | Pohang Steelers 39%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Pohang Steelers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights