Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors meet at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gimcheon Stadium, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4W, Jeonbuk Motors 3W, 2D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Gimcheon Sangmu FC half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56% versus Jeonbuk Motors 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44% | Jeonbuk Motors 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.03 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.948 / defence 0.964 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.971 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.334. Data: 57 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 57 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27% | Draw 34% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.70 | Draw 2.94 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70% | Jeonbuk Motors 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27% | Draw 34% | Jeonbuk Motors 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.03 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.948 / def 0.964 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.971 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Jeonbuk Motors xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 10:30 on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0 - 0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 27% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (9 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4W | Draws 2 | Jeonbuk Motors 3W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (0.97x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
27%
3.65
34%
2.92
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.28
1.25
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.65
27%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
8%
12.74
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.25 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent record stands at 22W 21D 19L from 62 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 33W 17D 12L across 62 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gimcheon Sangmu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have managed 11W 9D 10L from 30 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 15W 10D 5L across 30 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.53 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 22W 21D 19L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 33W 17D 12L in their last 62 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.40 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 25 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 4-0 on 14 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
3
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%, Jeonbuk Motors 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 30% for Jeonbuk Motors.
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 50%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Jeonbuk Motors in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 40% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 30% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Gimcheon Sangmu FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors drew 0-0 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.03 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.25 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27% | Draw 34% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%, Jeonbuk Motors 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.