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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.57 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 0.98 xG, a combined 1.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.68 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.22 / defence 0.57, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 20% | Draw 37% | Jeonbuk Motors 44%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Jeonbuk Motors 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Jeonbuk Motors winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights