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Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jeju United FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Jeju United FC 3-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.75 against Jeju United FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 27%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.62 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights