🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeju United FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.38 xG and Jeju United FC 0.60 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.73 against Jeju United FC attack 0.78 / defence 1.18, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 16%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Jeju United FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights