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Shock result as Gangwon FC defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gangwon FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Championship Group - 36, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.50 xG and Gangwon FC 0.89 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.86 against Gangwon FC attack 0.85 / defence 0.83, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Draw 28% | Gangwon FC 22%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Gangwon FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 49%, Gangwon FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Gangwon FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights