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Prediction vindicated as Gimcheon Sangmu FC edge out Gangwon FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Gangwon FC 1-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.01 xG and Gangwon FC 0.90 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.83 against Gangwon FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37% | Draw 32% | Gangwon FC 31%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Gangwon FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Gangwon FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights