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Dominant Gimcheon Sangmu FC run riot with a 6-2 hammering of FC Seoul.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat FC Seoul 6-2 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.00 xG and FC Seoul 0.93 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 6-2 for 8 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 5.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Seoul outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.79 against FC Seoul attack 0.95 / defence 0.79, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 36% | Draw 32% | FC Seoul 32%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%, FC Seoul 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Seoul's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.63 PPG, FC Seoul 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Seoul (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights