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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Seoul defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Seoul beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.76 xG and FC Seoul 0.57 xG, a combined 1.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.78 against FC Seoul attack 0.66 / defence 0.69, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 36% | Draw 39% | FC Seoul 25%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a FC Seoul win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 15%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 38% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, FC Seoul 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Seoul's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG, FC Seoul 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights