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Dominant Daejeon Citizen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gimcheon Sangmu FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 at Gimcheon Stadium, Championship Group - 38, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.72 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.14 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.87 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 24%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Daejeon Citizen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 49%, Daejeon Citizen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.65 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights