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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daejeon Citizen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gimcheon Sangmu FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-2 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.23 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.16 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.69 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.58 / defence 1.07, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 38% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 34%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Daejeon Citizen 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights