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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daegu FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.53 xG and Daegu FC 0.97 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Daegu FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.24 / defence 0.92 against Daegu FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.41, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 71% | Draw 16% | Daegu FC 12%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a Daegu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Daegu FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Daegu FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Daegu FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights