🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Daegu FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Daegu FC 2-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.16 xG and Daegu FC 0.84 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.73 against Daegu FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.13, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 27%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Daegu FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights