Pohang Steelers 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 31 as Pohang Steelers welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Steelyard Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 4W 3D 3L at Steelyard Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Steelyard Stadium.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Pohang Steelers's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Pohang Steelers trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 50% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 36% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.98 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.806 / defence 1.021 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.925 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.143. Ulsan Hyundai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Pohang Steelers games / 29 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 32% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pohang Steelers 40% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 32% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Pohang Steelers 0.98 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.806 / def 1.021 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.925 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 32% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 0.81x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
32%
3.12
31%
3.27
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.06
1.08
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.8 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.08 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 28 games, going 10W 9D 9L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.86 PPG from 28 outings (14W 10D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 5W 5D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.64 points per game from 14 outings (6W 5D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 61%.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 10W 9D 9L in their last 28 games (1.39 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 14W 10D 4L in their last 28 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.43 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 43%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Pohang Steelers) and 57% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%; Pohang Steelers have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Pohang Steelers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Pohang Steelers 1-2 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.98 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.08 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.81 / defence 1.02 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.21, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 32% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 36%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.39. Form held, and they took the win. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.