Pohang Steelers 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 4 as Pohang Steelers welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Steelyard Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.08 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.053 / defence 1.168 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.856 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.007 / away 0.853. Data: 3 Pohang Steelers games / 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 40% | Draw 33% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pohang Steelers as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 40% | Draw 33% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.08 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.053 / def 1.168 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.856 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.007 / away 0.853 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 13 March 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 40% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 1.05x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
40%
2.53
33%
3.00
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
1.94
0.85
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
17%
5.94
9%
10.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.85 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 1-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.08 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.85 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.05 / defence 1.17 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 40% | Draw 33% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 27%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.