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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 1-1 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.84 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.33 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pohang Steelers fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.07 / defence 1.06 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.18, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 50% | Draw 23% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 28%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 48%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.47 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights