Pohang Steelers 3-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Steelyard Stadium plays host to Pohang Steelers versus Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 15 August 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pohang Steelers have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Steelyard Stadium, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Steelyard Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Suwon City FC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon City FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Suwon City FC arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 50% versus Suwon City FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 32% | Suwon City FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.87 xG and Suwon City FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.731 / defence 0.955 | Suwon City FC attack 1.078 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.192. Pohang Steelers's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Pohang Steelers games / 23 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 25% | Draw 32% | Suwon City FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Suwon City FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 30% | Suwon City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 25% | Draw 32% | Suwon City FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Pohang Steelers 0.87 / Suwon City FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.731 / def 0.955 | Suwon City FC attack 1.078 / def 1.234 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Suwon City FC xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Pohang Steelers 3 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 25% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Suwon City FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 0.73x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (1.08x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
25%
4.00
32%
3.14
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.10
1.23
Suwon City FC xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
7%
13.65
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 15.0 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.23 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 22 games, going 8W 7D 7L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.36 PPG from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Pohang Steelers against 1.36 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 4W 4D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 1.36 points per game from 11 outings (4W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.41 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 64%.
Last 22 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 8W 7D 7L in their last 22 games (1.41 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 8W 6D 8L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Suwon City FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.45 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 22 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 1-5 on 22 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 3D 1L from 7 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
4
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2025, when Pohang Steelers 1-5 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Suwon City FC see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 36%, Suwon City FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Pohang Steelers) and 54% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Pohang Steelers have failed to score in 36% of games; Suwon City FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 54% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 54% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Pohang Steelers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Suwon City FC 3-1 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.87 xG and Suwon City FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pohang Steelers beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.73 / defence 0.95 against Suwon City FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.23, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 25% | Draw 32% | Suwon City FC 43%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Pohang Steelers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 32%, Suwon City FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.41 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.