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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Suwon City FC run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Pohang Steelers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Suwon City FC beat Pohang Steelers 1-5 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.56 xG and Suwon City FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 1.00 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Suwon City FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.13, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 50% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 24%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Suwon City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 51%, Suwon City FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.44 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights