Pohang Steelers 1-0 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Pohang Steelers take on Seongnam FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Seongnam FC travel to Steelyard Stadium to take on Pohang Steelers. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 4 August 2021, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pohang Steelers stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pohang Steelers's home record at Steelyard Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Seongnam FC — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Seongnam FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Seongnam FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 2L across 9 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Pohang Steelers carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Pohang Steelers, 1 for Seongnam FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2021, ended 1–2 with Seongnam FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Seongnam FC in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 53% versus Seongnam FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pohang Steelers 32% | Seongnam FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.74 xG and Seongnam FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.718 / defence 0.991 | Seongnam FC attack 0.707 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 0.940 / away 1.345. Pohang Steelers's attack strength of 0.718 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Pohang Steelers games / 19 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 25% | Draw 39% | Seongnam FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 4.00 | Draw 2.56 | Seongnam FC 2.78. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Pohang Steelers's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.68 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 40% | Seongnam FC 44% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Aug 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 25% | Draw 39% | Seongnam FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 34% | xG Pohang Steelers 0.74 / Seongnam FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.718 / def 0.991 | Seongnam FC attack 0.707 / def 1.092 | league avg home 0.940 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Seongnam FC xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 4 August 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 0 Seongnam FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 25% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 36% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC?
Record (1 meetings): Pohang Steelers 0W | Draws 0 | Seongnam FC 1W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Seongnam FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.72) and Seongnam FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
4.05
39%
2.56
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
1.68
0.94
Seongnam FC xG
4.05
25%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
10%
10.39
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 17.6 | 8.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.94 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 19 outings, Pohang Steelers have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 6W 7D 6L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Seongnam FC's form line: 4W 7D 8L from 19 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.32 PPG, Seongnam FC on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Pohang Steelers have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (2W 4D 3L).
On the road, Seongnam FC have gone 1W 6D 2L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.95 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 19 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Seongnam FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 games (1.32 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 4W 7D 8L in their last 19 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Seongnam FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.11 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jul 2022, when Pohang Steelers won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
1
Draws
3
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Seongnam FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 33%, Seongnam FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Pohang Steelers and 44% for Seongnam FC.
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Seongnam FC in 33%; Pohang Steelers have failed to score in 44% of games; Seongnam FC in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 44% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 44% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat Seongnam FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Seongnam FC 1-0 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.74 xG and Seongnam FC 0.94 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Seongnam FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.72 / defence 0.99 against Seongnam FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.09, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 25% | Draw 39% | Seongnam FC 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Pohang Steelers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 32%, Seongnam FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.32 PPG, Seongnam FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.