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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Pohang Steelers 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Pohang Steelers 1-2 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.27 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 40% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 50%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.39 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights