Pohang Steelers 0-3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Steelyard plays host to Pohang Steelers versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 05:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pohang Steelers have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pohang Steelers have posted 4W 2D 4L at Steelyard — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Pohang Steelers, 1.40 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Pohang Steelers, 2 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2024, ended 1–2 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Pohang Steelers half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 69% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 50% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.47 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.930 / defence 0.902 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.931 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 66 Pohang Steelers games / 33 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 47% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.70. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Pohang Steelers 70% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Steelyard • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 47% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.47 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.930 / def 0.902 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.931 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Steelyard.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 47% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (4 meetings): Pohang Steelers 1W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.93) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.93x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 66/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.81
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.50
1.04
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
6%
16.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.04 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pohang Steelers's recent record stands at 14W 11D 11L from 36 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 10L across 36 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Pohang Steelers against 1.67 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pohang Steelers have managed 6W 8D 4L from 18 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record stands at 6W 5D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.42 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 14W 11D 11L in their last 36 games (1.47 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 17W 9D 10L in their last 36 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.44 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-3 on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pohang Steelers
2
Draws
6
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 61%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pohang Steelers) and 44% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 44% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 44% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gimcheon Sangmu FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pohang Steelers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Pohang Steelers 0-3 at Steelyard, Championship Round - 4, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.47 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pohang Steelers fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.93 / defence 0.90 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 47% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 50%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.47 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.