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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Pohang Steelers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jeonbuk Motors.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers beat Jeonbuk Motors 3-1 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.95 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.84 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pohang Steelers beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jeonbuk Motors landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.96 / defence 1.12 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.32 / defence 0.71, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 19% | Draw 23% | Jeonbuk Motors 58%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Pohang Steelers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 48%, Jeonbuk Motors 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.47 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights