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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Pohang Steelers 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors beat Pohang Steelers 2-3 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.77 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.32 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Pohang Steelers beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.24 / defence 0.62, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 21% | Draw 31% | Jeonbuk Motors 49%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 49%, Jeonbuk Motors 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.44 PPG, Jeonbuk Motors 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights