🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Pohang Steelers edge out Jeju United FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers beat Jeju United FC 1-0 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.57 xG and Jeju United FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeju United FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Jeju United FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.08, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 48% | Draw 25% | Jeju United FC 27%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 48%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.46 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights