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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Pohang Steelers edge out Jeju United FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers beat Jeju United FC 2-1 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.16 xG and Jeju United FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Pohang Steelers beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.99 / defence 0.86 against Jeju United FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 39% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 29%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 43%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.54 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights