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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers beat Gwangju FC 1-0 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.22 xG and Gwangju FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gwangju FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against Gwangju FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.92, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 33% | Draw 27% | Gwangju FC 40%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Pohang Steelers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 50%, Gwangju FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (62 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Gwangju FC's trading profile (62 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.42 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights