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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers beat Gangwon FC 2-1 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.85 xG and Gangwon FC 0.99 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Pohang Steelers beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.90 / defence 0.87 against Gangwon FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 30% | Draw 32% | Gangwon FC 37%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Pohang Steelers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 43%, Gangwon FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.54 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights