Pohang Steelers 0-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pohang Steelers face FC Seoul.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul meet at Pohang Steel Yard in K League 1 (matchday 4). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 10:30 UK time.
Current Form
Pohang Steelers's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Pohang Steelers's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Seoul (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
FC Seoul's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Pohang Steelers's last 10 home games and FC Seoul's last 10 away games) — Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Seoul in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Pohang Steelers 0–0 FC Seoul — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Pohang Steelers half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FC Seoul half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 57% versus FC Seoul 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 45% | FC Seoul 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pohang Steelers surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while FC Seoul have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.23 xG and FC Seoul 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.924 / defence 0.997 | FC Seoul attack 1.143 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.267. Data: built from Pohang Steelers's last 35 games and FC Seoul's last 35. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 29% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 38%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 3.51 | Draw 3.02 | FC Seoul 2.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Seoul at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Pohang Steelers's last 10 home games and FC Seoul's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pohang Steelers 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Seoul 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Pohang Steelers 35 games, FC Seoul 35) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, matchday 4 | Venue: Pohang Steel Yard • Kick-off: Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 29% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Pohang Steelers 1.23 / FC Seoul 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.924 / def 0.997 | FC Seoul attack 1.143 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.44
FC Seoul xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul FAQs
What time does Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at Pohang Steel Yard.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 1 FC Seoul.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Pohang Steel Yard.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul part of?
Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 4) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 29% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pohang Steelers's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against FC Seoul's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (1.14x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from Pohang Steelers's last 35 games and FC Seoul's last 35, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
29%
3.51
33%
3.02
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.67
1.44
FC Seoul xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
7%
14.84
11%
8.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.44 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pohang Steelers's recent record stands at 30W 19D 27L from 76 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five.
FC Seoul, meanwhile, have gone 28W 23D 25L across 76 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Pohang Steelers against 1.41 for FC Seoul. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pohang Steelers have managed 16W 12D 11L from their last 39 home games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Seoul's away record stands at 12W 14D 13L across their last 39 away games, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.38 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
Pohang Steelers (Home) vs FC Seoul (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul Form FAQs
What form are Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 30W 19D 27L in their last 76 games (1.43 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 28W 23D 25L in their last 76 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or FC Seoul away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.54 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won FC Seoul 4-1 Pohang Steelers on 29 Jun 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 2W 2D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
3
Draws
4
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pohang Steelers have won 3, FC Seoul have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Pohang Steelers 2-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 54%, FC Seoul 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pohang Steelers) and 38% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; FC Seoul in 36%; FC Seoul in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs FC Seoul Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 51% of FC Seoul's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 38% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and FC Seoul matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 51% of FC Seoul's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Pohang Steelers 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Pohang Steelers 0-1 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.23 xG and FC Seoul 1.44 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pohang Steelers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against FC Seoul attack 1.14 / defence 1.00, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 29% | Draw 33% | FC Seoul 38%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 45%, FC Seoul 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.43 PPG, FC Seoul 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.